Post by MGrage on Oct 1, 2007 9:49:35 GMT -5
I almost had a heart attack this morning when I read Dave's news flash after coming home from work. I had a 9 point lead just a couple days ago and I thought I had 5th place in the bag. So to settle my still racing heart, I had to dive into the stats to see if I have anything to worry about, and *whew*, I don't. Reasons follow :
1) Unless the Rockies pitch their starter from yesterday, there is no possible way for the Matts to tie me in HO+Sv. He's 3 behind so Jimenez would have to pitch. Not to mention both teams would have to be in save situations since Matt has pitchers on both teams going.
2) Similarly, the possibility of Matt catching up to the Ruffins in SB is pretty close to nil. Hawpe, Torrealba & Atkins have a grand total of 5 SBs all year and even with Barrett behind the plate, I'd be willing to bet my house that he could throw out a couple of those lead footed speedsters.
3) Dave, I expect you to be rooting against Matt because if he catches up to you in ERA, your hopes and dreams for sneaking past the professor will be smashed to pieces.
If Heath Bell gives up 3 runs in 2/3 of an inning, that would put you behind the Matts. He's only given up that many runs twice all year though. Even just a 1/3 inning more, is enough to put you back above Matt too. If Heath Bell doesn't pitch, it's a near impossibility for Matt to pass up Dave. His pitchers would have to toss 7 innings of shutout ball to drop his ERA below the Copperfields. Pretty much a perfect storm of coincidences would have to occur for Matt to pick up a point here.
4) Finally, WHIP. MMMM, whipped cream. The Doormatt pitchers would have to throw 5 perfect innings to slide past the Picts in the standings. Well, maybe not perfect innings, they can feel free to bean anyone they want, it won't hurt them in the standings.
Nick's pitchers would have to allow 7 base runners without any outs for him to lose a point here.
I think it's much more likely that Matt could pick points in R or TB. He's only 6 runs behind the Picts and 23 TB behind Kenny & I. Strange things happen in Coors Field all the time. He's also very close to the Ruffins in BB:K. His pitchers would have to get 7 Ks without any walks though. On the flip side, if the Ruffins' pitchers walk 3 batters without striking out anybody, that would give the Matts a point.
OK, wrapping things up now. The most likely scenario is me losing a half point to Kenny and that's about it. If Peavy can't find the zone and walks 4-5 guys, Dave could possibly lose a point to Matt, but I don't think so. He's only walked 5 guys once this year and has no 4 walk games. ;D YAY! I can go take my usual post-shift nap now. Mahalo
Matt
1) Unless the Rockies pitch their starter from yesterday, there is no possible way for the Matts to tie me in HO+Sv. He's 3 behind so Jimenez would have to pitch. Not to mention both teams would have to be in save situations since Matt has pitchers on both teams going.
2) Similarly, the possibility of Matt catching up to the Ruffins in SB is pretty close to nil. Hawpe, Torrealba & Atkins have a grand total of 5 SBs all year and even with Barrett behind the plate, I'd be willing to bet my house that he could throw out a couple of those lead footed speedsters.
3) Dave, I expect you to be rooting against Matt because if he catches up to you in ERA, your hopes and dreams for sneaking past the professor will be smashed to pieces.
If Heath Bell gives up 3 runs in 2/3 of an inning, that would put you behind the Matts. He's only given up that many runs twice all year though. Even just a 1/3 inning more, is enough to put you back above Matt too. If Heath Bell doesn't pitch, it's a near impossibility for Matt to pass up Dave. His pitchers would have to toss 7 innings of shutout ball to drop his ERA below the Copperfields. Pretty much a perfect storm of coincidences would have to occur for Matt to pick up a point here.4) Finally, WHIP. MMMM, whipped cream. The Doormatt pitchers would have to throw 5 perfect innings to slide past the Picts in the standings. Well, maybe not perfect innings, they can feel free to bean anyone they want, it won't hurt them in the standings.
Nick's pitchers would have to allow 7 base runners without any outs for him to lose a point here.I think it's much more likely that Matt could pick points in R or TB. He's only 6 runs behind the Picts and 23 TB behind Kenny & I. Strange things happen in Coors Field all the time. He's also very close to the Ruffins in BB:K. His pitchers would have to get 7 Ks without any walks though. On the flip side, if the Ruffins' pitchers walk 3 batters without striking out anybody, that would give the Matts a point.
OK, wrapping things up now. The most likely scenario is me losing a half point to Kenny and that's about it. If Peavy can't find the zone and walks 4-5 guys, Dave could possibly lose a point to Matt, but I don't think so. He's only walked 5 guys once this year and has no 4 walk games. ;D YAY! I can go take my usual post-shift nap now.
MahaloMatt