Newest CFCL Franchise....Red Hot.

[redhots]

I figure I should try and enjoy my place for the moment and have a little fun.

It's way early with A LOT of season left to be starting to figure out what to spend money finishes on and what not..........

We've all seen teams start out hot and spend the rest of the year tumbling down to the bottom........will that be the Red Hots?

I'm guessing pre-draft most everyone would have answered either No Chance in Hell or Possible but Not Likely........Maybe nothing has changed.

I don't think I'm the team to beat this year but I think I have a good shot at a money finish.......

Did the Copperfields go wire to wire last year?

What is the best finish of a new CFCL Franchise?

Come and Get Me Guys!!!! I'm holding the top spot for you......you really can't let the new guy stay up there too long........can you?

Bob

[Nick's Picts (archived)]

So now we know how I voted...

You'll have to withstand the Copper's inevitable late season trading and push for the top. Seldom do they go wire to wire but even rarer are they out of the hunt. I wasn't kiddiing earlier when I said I wish I had any of my drafts go as well as your own. As far as I can see, with good health you've got even odds at collecting some of my entry fee at the end of the year. The big question, as always, is depth which is probably your weakest link. Repko is not the answer unless he's dipping into The Cream and Clear v2.0. Your rotation is also a bit shakey, but stranger things have happened...

What I'm still waiting for the is annual draft review by the Hats/Sludge/Bulls. Where you at, Matt?

All in all, it certainly has been an interesting week in terms of CFCL standings. Lots of new faces near the top. Then again, the Picts find themselves fending off the cellar as always. The more things change, the more they remain the same. Still, once our rotation settles down and we get our full compliment of OF (WTF is Willingham doing in the OF? He belongs behind the plate!) we're coming to get you...or at least meet you in the middle.

[redhots]

nickpicts said:

Repko is not the answer unless he's dipping into The Cream and Clear v2.0. Your rotation is also a bit shakey, but stranger things have happened...

Funny you mention about Repko.........he should receive the package any day now...

I like my rotation......if they remain healthy.....I wouldn't say it's shaky.....I'd say I'm thin on starting pitching.......if only Maddux returns to Cy Young form.........he turns 30 this year.....right?

Still wishing I had gotten Young for .15 instead of .16 when Teddy jumped to his max bid on him.......I was trying to find a balance of "look to the future" and "give yourself a chance this year"......I think I have a couple minor league pitchers that could be in rotations sometime this year.........not sure how good they'll be but I might need the innings.....either that or throw Francis out there home or away....yikes.

I didn't realize there was an annual draft review by the Bulls........I'll look forward to it as well.

[MGrage]

*bleah* to the both of ya

I'm waiting until one of my young pitchers actually make it through the 6th inning. Oh well, another day, another missed QS. That's 10 consecutive starts and still counting. Take it from me Bob, you don't want to depend on "sleepers" or young starters. What the hell happened to Maholm over the winter? This can't be the same guy who had 2.18 ERA in 40 innings last year.

BTW, you do know there is a minimum innings requirement, don't you Bob? Anyways, I completely forgot about my annual draft report. It's going to have to wait a few days until I work though this stupid cold. It's 80 degrees in here and I'm still cold. But I'm still going to try to make it to the Cubs' game tomorrow. I'll be right behind the left hand batter's box about 12 rows off the field. Since it's in High Definition, you guys can get a clear shot of me picking my nose and eating it .... You should be able to tell if its green or brown too. ;D

So if I catch pneumonia, I'll get the report out after I get discharged from the hospital. Well, I'm going to go back to bed and try to sleep off all this NyQuil. Mahalo

Matt

[Nick's Picts (archived)]

redhots said:

I'd say I'm thin on starting pitching.......

Thin you say? How about a tubber like Kidney Pontoon to pork up your rotation. He's yours for anyone resembling an outfielder or corner infielder.

redhots said:

if only Maddux returns to Cy Young form.........he turns 30 this year.....right?

I prefer to think of it as 29 for the eleventh time. Pretty soon he'll be on Paul's *must have* list.

He looked frickin' excellent today though.

And, yes, Matt's annual review posts are a goldmine of insightful commentary disguised as logorrhea.

[redhots]

mgrage said:

*
BTW, you do know there is a minimum innings requirement, don't you Bob?
Matt

Note to self...........Must read constitution again......

Minimum IP is 500.....right??? Hope so with my staff.....

[MGrage]

Article X Standings - The Bald Eagle IP Requirement

It used to be 900, but we upped it to an even thou a year or so ago. There's also a minimum AB rule too but that's not going to be a problem.

Well, I'm feeling much better today so I'm going to head off to the ballpark. Though I'm still excreting various substances so I'll make sure to hold them up for the camera for all you guys watching the game on MLB.com at work. *cough* See? Mahalo

Matt

PS. I don't know what logorrhea is but if it's anything like diarrhea, I'm officially offended by your callous and cavalier attitude towards my illness. And here I was, getting ready to offer you an 18th round pick for your boy Kidney Pontoon too. *harumph*

[Copperfields]

mgrage said:

PS. I don't know what logorrhea is

Isn't she one of the Desperate Housewives?

[Copperfields]

The discussion of a minimum IP rule and the likelihood of Bob meeting it would indicate he may be attempting a relief-heavy strategy (just enough decent starters to get 1000 IP, emphasis on relievers to dominate HoSv and the ratio categories, focusing money on hitters).

I don't know whether that's Bob's strategy or not and don't know whether he's considering punting QS, but I did some quick checking, and it appears that "unbalanced" staffs are not terribly successful.

In "modern" CFCL history (since we went to 12 teams back in 2000), there have only been 8 teams that finished in the money (out of a possible 24 money teams over those 6 years) and that finished in the lower half in either QS (or W) or HoSv (or S). Of those 8, 5 just missed the top half (finishing in 7th or 8th in the category).

During those 6 years, the lowest the League Champion finished in one of those categories was 5th, which happened just once.

The average ranking in QS (W) and HoSv (S) for Champs was 2.7 (so, a little better than 3rd place).

The average ranking in those categories for money finishers was 4.4 (so, between 4th and 5th).

It would appear that the key to CFCL success is in a balanced staff. Not that another approach couldn't work -- just that it hasn't been done before. Or at least, it's rare and would appear to be difficult.

On punting in general, the other category that is typically employed in a punt strategy is SB. Since 2000, only 2 money teams (out of 24) finished in the lower half in SB.

Either we've had some incredibly conservative/unimaginative owners over the past 6 years, or punting would not seem to work well in the CFCL...

[Copperfields]

FWIW, I voted "50/50". A non-committal copout, I know, but I think it's about right.

My post-draft standings based on my projections have the Red Hots finishing just on the fringe of the money spots. Interestingly, of my top 8 projected finishers, only 2 are prior Champions, so chances are good the 2006 CFCL Champ will be a first-timer...

[redhots]

Very interesting stuff David..........a lot of info for some "quick checking".

Now I can't access the current active rosters but in looking at the post-draft rosters it seems the average CFCL franchise has 4 starters in the lineup......again, not sure how much it has changed with moves....I'll be curious to look at it more closely from home in the next day or two.

I have 3 active starting pitchers currently with 2 on my reserves.........no #1 starters on my staff but I think they'll turn in a good number of QS and decent ratios.

I'd be curious to know if any of the previous CFCL owners that finished in the money, as David's research showed, planned to "punt" the category they did poorly in........or if it just happened due to injury....poor draft....etc....?

In my draft prep......Quality Starts is where I had the most trouble.......I didn't want to overpay for starting pitching even though I actually kicked around the idea of keeping Pedro at .44.......I may have went slightly extreme on the other side of things.....we shall see.

[Copperfields]

Bob,
I can only speak for myself in terms of planning to punt a category, and I've never done it. IMO, too much needs to go right for it to work. I can't recall ever planning to do anything other than draft a balanced staff.

Actually, now that I think about it, Jason's typical approach was to go heavy on starters. I don't know if he was intentionlly punting HoSv or if it was just how things worked out. Interestingly, his most successful year was last year, when he went with a balanced staff...

In terms of numbers of starters/relievers - it obviously will change week-to-week since the Reserve Lists make it easy to shuttle guys back and forth based on match-ups/opponents, etc. - so the make-up of staffs will change. Based on experience, though, I'd say your impression of 4-5 starters on a 9-man staff (about 50%) is about right in the CFCL.

[MGrage]

Jason usually advocates not spending too much money on closers as a rule. He'll grab one if he feels it's a bargain but he'd rather go with starters and MR with a chance to become closers. His reasoning is that many closers lose their jobs over the course of the season whether it be by injury or general suckitude. As many as 1/3 of the teams switch closers. You can find alot of saves and holds on the waiver wire which is how he endedup with Turnbow. I don't think he punted HoSv but he just wanted to finish somewhere in the middle.

Well, I just looked over the Excel roster from right after the Draft and this is how many starters each team have (active and reserve) :

Meisters - 6 & 2
Coppers - 5 & 5
Chops - 5 & 1
Matts - 6 & 0
Rebels - 3 & 2
Bulls - 5 & 3
Picts - 5 & 2
Ruffins - 6 & 3
Splinters - 5 & 4
Red Hots - 3 & 2
Dozers - 3 & 1
Stones - 5 & 2

That's 84 starters but some of them like Prior and Wolf are injured. The median and mean are the same at 7. I didn't include minor league starters like Billingsley and Nippert because they could always come up in some other role than starter. Mahalo

Matt

[kenndoza (archived)]

mgrage said:

Dozers - 3 & 1

Dozers?

I've never been the type of guy who has loaded my roster with starting pitching because there just aren't that many good starting pitchers to go around. I like to minimize my damage with the likes of Dan Wheeler. That said, I feel like I have more starters than Matt says. In addition to my three active ones, I have Pedro Astacio (DL) and Scott Olsen (will be called up when Florida needs a fifth starter, probably this weekend), as well as middle relievers like Jon Rauch and Aaron Heilman who will get some spot starts.

That said, the thought of purposely "punting" any category seems repugnant, but there are times when you almost have no choice (like your closers going down).

I *am* apparently punting getting stats from a third baseman this year.

[kenndoza (archived)]

copperfields said:

My post-draft standings based on my projections have the Red Hots finishing just on the fringe of the money spots. Interestingly, of my top 8 projected finishers, only 2 are prior Champions, so chances are good the 2006 CFCL Champ will be a first-timer...

Don't know how many people actually do post-standings projections, but is there anyone who did this who did not have Teddy winning, rather easily?

Fortunately, once I plugged in all of his opening day transactions due to injuries to his starters, he fell back to the rest of the pack.